A recent UN report has issued a stark warning, indicating that if the conflict in Gaza persists for another month, the poverty rate in Palestine could surge by 34%, pushing nearly half a million more people into poverty. Initial estimates from the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) suggest a potential 8.4% decline in Palestine’s GDP, amounting to a loss of $1.7 billion.
The assessment reveals that after one month of conflict, poverty had already risen by 20%, with a 4.2% decline in economic growth. The International Labour Organization estimates that 390,000 jobs were lost during this period. Projections indicate that if the war extends into a third month, poverty could increase by almost 45%, affecting over 660,000 people, with a GDP fall of 12.2%, resulting in total losses of $2.5 billion.
Currently, 1.8 million Palestinians live in poverty, and the conflict threatens to set back human development in the region by 11 to 19 years, depending on its intensity. Economic recovery post-ceasefire is anticipated to be slow, given widespread displacement and extensive infrastructure damage in Gaza.