India’s CPI Inflation Likely to Average 4.3% This Fiscal Year, Says Crisil

Rating agency Crisil has said that India’s retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is expected to average 4.3% in the current financial year. The agency believes that inflation will stay within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target range, giving some relief to consumers and policymakers.

CPI inflation shows the change in prices of goods and services that people buy for daily use, such as food, fuel, clothing, and housing. A lower inflation rate means prices are rising at a slower pace, which helps people manage their household expenses better.

Crisil said that the main reason for the expected 4.3% average inflation is the drop in food prices and stable global oil prices. The agency also pointed out that the Indian government and the RBI have taken smart steps to control inflation over the past year.

“Food inflation will likely remain under control if there are normal monsoon rains this year,” Crisil said in its report. “Fuel prices are also stable at the global level, which helps reduce transportation and energy costs.”

The agency added that good supply chains, low import costs, and better stock management have also helped keep prices in check. It believes that inflation will move closer to 4% by the end of the fiscal year if there are no unexpected shocks.

The Reserve Bank of India aims to keep inflation within the range of 2% to 6%, with a target of 4%. Crisil’s forecast of 4.3% is close to this target, which means the RBI may not need to change interest rates drastically.

Economists and business leaders welcomed the report. They said stable inflation helps both consumers and businesses. When prices stay predictable, people can plan their spending better, and companies can grow with confidence.

Crisil’s outlook gives a positive signal for India’s economy. If inflation stays under control, it will support strong growth and help maintain financial stability across the country.